One Decision

Trump Will Hit Iran After the Midterms. It's His Way Out | Ian Bremmer

2026-10-29

Will Trump strike Iran after the 2026 midterm elections, and is a wider war his way out of lame-duck weakness? Eurasia Group founder and president Ian Bremmer explains why the Iran war may escalate after the US midterms, what a Democratic “blue wave” would mean for Trump’s foreign policy, and whether Trump has passed his peak.

Bremmer also covers what a Democratic Congress would prioritize abroad, the investigations likely to follow the midterms, the future of Republican populism after Trump, and where the Ukraine war stands between Trump and Putin.

Thank you to Incogni for sponsoring. Get 60% off the annual plan with code "onedecision" at https://incogni.com/onedecision

In this episode:


(00:00) Iran War Worst Case Scenario



(03:55) Have We Passed Peak Trump?



(05:20) Trump Midterm Election Outlook



(06:08) Thwarted Trump Foreign Policy Risks



(08:20) Democrats Post-Midterm Investigation Strategy



(10:40) Trump's Vendetta Against Former Insiders



(11:05) Republican Party Populism After Trump



(17:39) Is Trump a Temporary Phenomenon?



(26:10) American Dream and Populist Pitchforks



(28:38) Democratic Geopolitical Priorities After Midterms



(31:16) Iran War: Best and Worst Scenarios



(38:00) Trump, Putin, and the Ukraine War




Hosted by Sir Richard Dearlove (former MI6 Chief) and guest co-host John Raine (International Institute for Strategic Studies)
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390

Latest episode

2026-10-29

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Tough decisions rattle us all to the core.  But for our guests on One Decision— the choices they are up against can also shape history.  No pressure!  They take us through all of their doubts, emotions and—sometimes unexpected--consequences.A fresh take on foreign policy.Hear the former head of Mi6, Sir Richard Dearlove alongside international journalists as they analyse, interview, and discuss.